The flow of Argentines traveling abroad and doing shopping is something that is always traversed by the exchange rate.
Thus, the level of tourists crossing the border, along with the rhythm of expenses with credit cards, have become very accurate thermometers when estimating how expensive or cheap is the dollar in Argentina.
That is why it is normal that the moments of overdue exchange - in which industrialists are seen claiming for an importing avalanche or warning about problems to export - coincide with periods of strong sales of passages abroad.
On the other hand, when a devaluation occurs on the domestic level or the green bill looks volatile, Argentines tend to behave more conservatively, either because of a loss of purchasing power or because of fear that a new currency jump will end making the bills payable once back.
What is happening today? When analyzing the statistics, it is confirmed not only that Argentines are traveling less abroad, but also that they no longer use their credit cards as much as they did years ago.
In the heat of debate on the true power of fire of the Central bank at the time of containing to the currency, and with a type of change that resists to lower of the $ 46, the reality is that the conjuncture plays against those who cross the border , especially for those who aim to do shopping.
On this last point, the May data of the Central Bank shows that the balance for purchases with plastics in foreign currency averaged US $ 296 million. Implying? Considering that in 2018 that figure had climbed to US $ 561 million, it represents a year-on-year drop of almost 50%. In addition, it is the lowest figure since May 2014.
At that time, it should be remembered, it also hovered over a devaluation, and in addition the Kirchner had applied surcharges to expenses with cards outside the country.
Chile: goodbye to the "new Miami"
The abrupt drop in card expenses is a direct consequence of the advance of the greenback: in May 2018 it was trading at around $ 19. That is to say, in the last 12 months its price went up 140%.
On the other hand, according to the latest data on the wage index prepared by the INDEC, in the span of one year, salaries increased 35%. That is, far behind the rise of the US currency.
This, added to the economic crisis and labor instability, reduced the number of Argentines who shop across the border.
According to the latest data available from the statistical agency, between January and March of this year 1.1 million people left the two main airports in the country, some 241,000 fewer than in the same period of 2018.
Chile, by the way, was one of the destinations that was most affected by this fall. Little remained of those moments in which the trans-Andean nation had been renamed the "new Miami", by the hand of the Argentines who between 2015 and 2017 flooded their shopping centers, restaurants and hotels.
In the first quarter of the year, according to official figures, only 55,300 people crossed the mountain range by air, a number that contrasts with the nearly 100,000 that had done so in the same period of 2018.
The following table shows how Chile is among the destinations most affected by the lower exit of Argentines.
"Santiago was a very strong square, it was chosen by many tourists as a getaway, taking advantage of long weekends, the excuse was to do some tourism but also to go shopping, due to the big differences in prices, mainly in electronics and clothing, "says Martin Romano iProUP, country manager of travel agency Atrápalo, founded in Spain.
However, the manager says that incentive was cut almost completely. "A large part of that public is no longer so motivated to continue traveling to Chile, after the jump in the dollar, the existing price gap narrowed and the reality is that, without this hook, many now prefer domestic destinations, such as Cataratas, Mendoza , Salta or Patagonia ", completes.
"The rise of low cost, with ultra-competitive rates, is another factor that made the neighboring country unattractive," adds Romano.
According to the latest report of the Department of Studies of the National Chamber of Commerce, Services and Tourism of Chile (CNC), Argentine debit and credit card purchases plummeted by no less than 71% year-on-year during the first quarter.
This collapse took place after a fall close to 85% that had been recorded between October and December 2018. These figures have an impact, taking into account that between 2015 and 2016, expenditures in the Trans-Andean nation skyrocketed between 100% and more. 200%.
As a consequence of this contraction, the share of expenses of Argentines in Chilean stores suffered an abrupt collapse: it went from representing 40% of the total to less than 15%.
There is another key fact that serves to illustrate how the trans-Andean country ceased to be the "mecca" of consumption: in the first quarter of 2017, when the boom was still sustained, 5 out of every 10 dollars were "tagged" in shopping malls and stores. clothing and electronics.
In return, just 90 cents were explained by purchases in supermarkets, while only $ s1.5 of each $ 10 corresponded to the payment of hotels, among other items.
However, devaluation through the use of plastics in the Chilean shopping centers did not stop losing ground: now, this item accounts for just US $ 2.3 of each US $ 10 (54% drop).
"The trend that we saw last year was maintained: there are fewer Mendoza traveling to Chile," assured Andrés Zavattieri iProUP, manager of Mendoza Plaza Shopping, one of the most important shopping centers in the province, which, in turn, is one of the main transmitters of tourists to the neighboring country.
"Price differences in technology have been reduced and in the case of clothing we can say that now, inclus, or we are cheaper than in Santiago," he adds.
To corroborate this, iProUP developed the "Falabella Index", which allows comparing how much the same product - or one with similar characteristics - costs in this chain on both sides of the mountain range.
According to the analysis, the technological items in a Falabella of Santiago cost a little less than in one of Buenos Aires, measured in dollars. However, the huge gaps that could be found two or three years ago - above 100% - were substantially reduced.
Currently, the biggest differences can be found in some TV models.
-An LED with Ultra HD 43-inch technology is available in the neighboring country at US $ 330.
- In Argentina, one of the same brand is trading at US $ 582, which marks a gap of 76%.
In this case the gap is important. However, given the fall in demand, whoever opts to acquire this equipment in the local market today has the possibility of financing it in up to six interest-free installments, a figure that is not lower in times of inflation.
In other categories, the gaps are smaller: some cell phones released can cost between 27% and 43% more here than in Chile. Put in figures:
- A Samsung Galaxy A9 smartphone that in Santiago is available for US $ 76
- In Argentina, $ 970 must be paid for the same equipment
At first glance, it is a difference that could be attractive. However, it is liquefied if it is considered that here you can pay in six installments without interest and that, in addition, the risk is minimized by the local guarantee.
In the case of notebooks, after a few months in which there were almost no gaps - after the tax break that led to the Government of Macri, now there are gaps, but they do not justify a trip to the trans-Andean nation.
- A basic laptop brand HP with Intel Celeron processor and 500 GB disk, in Santiago is worth $ s344
- Meanwhile, in a Falabella of Buenos Aires, it reaches US $ 420, which makes a difference of 22%.
With a more exhaustive search you can find specific offers in the local market:
- An Asus laptop with Intel Core i5 processor and 4GB of memory is offered in a Buenos Aires store at a discounted price equivalent to US $ 760
- That is, 18% less than in a Chilean store
As can be seen, in the case of apparel, the differences are minimal and, in many cases, the values ââin the domestic market are below those observed in the same store on the other side of the mountain range.
Shirts, sneakers, jackets or jeans from the same brands can now be obtained between 3% and up to 37% cheaper than in Chile.
According to data from the Argentine Chamber of Clothing (CIAI), this is largely explained by the drop in sales at home, which led to the price of clothing has moved almost 17 points below inflation general the last year.
Strong narrowing of the deficit
In the sector, they argue that the less transfer there is from devaluation to the gondolas, the more the trend of receptive tourism will be strengthened.
With a lower flow of Argentines traveling abroad and a greater number of foreign visitors, the deficit in the tourism balance has been sharply reduced: it is estimated that the first semester, the sectorial red, reached US $ 1.8 billion.
This is an important improvement compared to the almost US $ 4,100 million deficit balance recorded between January and April 2018 (see table).
In 2018, the tourism balance deficit had been US $ 8,000 million, a figure that implied a 25% drop with respect to 2017 levels.
For this year, meanwhile, the consensus of the sector is that the negative balance of tourism will continue to shrink and will move close to US $ 4.5 billion, an estimate that -of course- is subject to monthly revisions.
And much of this shrinkage is explained by the thousands of Argentine tourists who removed from their list to Chile and prefer to keep their credit cards, at least until the former "new Miami" to tempt them again with their prices.
