How many of the professions we know today will continue to exist in just a few years? What tasks will be completely carried out by robots? Automation and algorithms have been destroying jobs, but also generating new and high quality.
According to the report "The future of work" of the World Economic Forum (WEF), jobs such as supermarket cashier or assembly line operators have been and will be, increasingly, those left in the hands of the machines or replaced by artificial intelligence.
A study by the University of Oxford points out that even in the United States this trend already threatens approximately 47% of the entire workforce. In Argentina, the percentage is higher, according to the World Bank: 65%.
"70% of the positions or one in six jobs will cease to exist or will be reconverted, which is why we must help companies and workers to generate new skills", points out to iProUP Maximiliano Schellhas, Managing Director of Staffing of Randstad.
The executive said: "There are jobs that will disappear, but there are going to be other jobs or other needs, which we still do not know, that will require new profiles."
Natalia De Greiff, vice president of IBM Services for South America, says that, according to company research, "in the next three years, 120 million workers in the 10 largest economies in the world will have to retrain and train as a result of the advance of artificial intelligence, robotics and automation ".
"We are living a great transformation in the way we work, automation and artificial intelligence will affect all levels of the business and its people, modifying the searches for talent and skills that organizations need," says María Fernanda Álvarez Apa, consulting manager of People & Change of PwC Argentina.
He adds: "It will be necessary to educate them in agility, adaptability and retrain them, above all, in abilities to face the change".
In this sense, Valeria Delgado, vice president of Recruting for LAD of Oracle, says: "People, increasingly, must reinvent themselves to highlight their creativity, we are faced with the need for a human re-evolution".
Daniel Laco, head of the Talent Committee of CESSI, understands that the jobs that are threatened are those that can easily be replaced through the implementation of new technologies.
Routine or non-routine: that is the question
In previous technological revolutions, the division between the jobs was of the manual type in front of intellectuals and not qualified versus highly qualified. And the threatened ones were the manuals and not qualified.
Today, with digital transformation and full automation, jobs in danger are those related to repetitive tasks or those of little intellectual effort. This category includes those with low qualifications, manuals or intellectuals, but also those with high qualifications.
For Javier Rubin Doschyk, Senior Manager of Consultancy in Human Capital of Deloitte, the range of threatened jobs is very broad and diverse, "more than we can imagine".
"Are those linked to tasks that can be automated through accessible technologies: process robotics, chatbots and some more complex as artificial intelligence," he says.
Historically, there were jobs that worked for a certain period and disappeared or mutated by technological progress: elevator operator, typist or telephone operator are just some of the many examples. Today, the professions also change, resignify and disappear. And much more quickly.
According to the regulations and culture of each country, this list may vary, but the jobs in danger of extinction are the following:
María Inés Calvo, Director of Talent Attraction of Microsoft Latin America, refers specifically to what happens in Argentina.
"According to a study we conducted together with CIPPEC, the most susceptible occupations to be automated in Argentina are: translators, data capturists, telephone vendors, warehouse operators and assemblers," he says.
The countdown began: by 2022, the change in the division of labor between human beings, machines and algorithms will displace 75 million current jobs, while 133 million new functions will emerge.
The trend will be accentuated by 2030, when between 400 and 800 million workers around the world could lose their jobs because of robotization, according to a McKinsey report.
Human-machine interaction
One of the leading global experts in this field is Leila Takayama, PhD in psychology and communication, who works as a teacher and researcher at the University of California-Santa Cruz, in the United States.
The specialist addresses these issues as she carries out her research on the interaction between people and robots. He has the experience of having participated in the main innovation laboratories of Silicon Valley, such as GoogleX, Hoku Labs, Willow Garage and Palo Alto Research Center.
Takayama was not only present at the major technology companies, but was also honored for her work with the IEEE Robotics and Automation Society Early Career Award, the World Economic Forum Young Global Leader, and Technology Review's 35 Innovators Under 35.
After her presentation at the Falling Walls conference on science and technology, which takes place every year in Berlin, Germany, the specialist talked with iProUP about the limits of robotics, the potential of applications and how she develops her research.
- What are the main challenges posed by the interaction between humans and robots?
There are many, but first we have to evaluate is what we want the robots for. For example, many think about them for their homes, but first they should ask themselves if it makes sense to invest and take the risks of having it in a private space such as home.
One of the most difficult problems to solve is not that they can perform household chores but have "common sense". That they be ingenious, flexible and creative to solve a problem that comes their way.
Another challenge is how you can perceive people and, in turn, how they can respond appropriately to this interaction. It is also complex that the robot learns to handle the subtle and unconscious symbols that people use to communicate.
Therefore, it is necessary that those who develop robotics applications are sensitive and have empathy. That they are capable of designing robots whose behavior reaches the desired objectives and does not generate counterproductive or rejection reactions.
- What kind of skills should people develop to bond?
If we do a good job when designing the robots, they will not have to develop new skills. Today, it is necessary to have a doctorate in robotics to interact with robots, and this in itself constitutes a very high barrier.
But it is our responsibility to influence the design, make them easier to use and not require such intense training.
For example, there are programming interfaces that can be used even by someone who has never programmed. This type of tools are very useful to make the interaction more accessible. With them, designers and architects can build completely different things.
- On the contrary, what are the social skills that robots must develop?
They can not read the cultural symbols. Social competences are related to the ability to read the symbolic signals we give about what we are going to do, get feedback in an interaction or know if an action was well received or not by another person.
It is a mechanism that is trained and we can do it with robots, so they know how to behave appropriately in a work environment or in a certain social situation.
For example, I am currently working on nonverbal behavior, which is somewhat more emotional and visceral than communication that uses only language.
- Is the processing power a limitation when developing robotic solutions?
Today, robots can use the computing power of servers in the cloud.
That is to say, the brain does not have to be in the body of this type of applications.
There are other limitations that are in the first place, such as the capacity of the sensors. That is not a trivial issue.
- What professionals and disciplines are involved in the design of a robot?
In my original field of research, which is human-computer interaction, they work - in addition to computer specialists - psychologists, sociologists, anthropologists and designers.
Development is approached from all these different perspectives, since it is important to take into account individual, cultural and organizational differences.
It is important to have a team with different members of a culture or society to take into account the different perspectives at the time of design.
For example, an application for Japan is very different from one that is going to be used in the United States, Spain or Argentina. Something similar happens with different corporate cultures, since organizations also have different cultures.
- What are the main applications today?
Many dream of having robots in their home, but it is not a simple environment because a house is a changing environment, noisy, messy, in which people enter and leave all the time.
On the other hand, the main applications of robotics are in the industrial field, which is more structured and predictable, in which robots can do repetitive tasks and work together with people.
In a factory, in addition, it is possible to train people to adapt and learn to use these applications. We also see them in a wide range of sectors, ranging from mining to aerospace or ocean exploration.
It makes sense to deploy robots in places that are dangerous for people. Another interesting area is that of health, which is a little more structured than that of a house.
- In the future there will be more collaboration between men and robots?
Existing robots can do very specialized tasks for which they were designed. But I think it's going to be a long time before they can do anything you ask them very well and with intelligence, because many tasks that for humans are obvious, for them they are still difficult.
Personally, I do not fear being replaced by a robot because we have very different intelligences. In truth, what we have to do is to use more effectively the applications that are available today.
Forward
It is estimated that the machines will do the repetitive tasks, but much more sensitivity will be needed, and there lies a window of opportunity for professionals to reconvert.
In this case, the STEM skills (science, technology, engineering and mathematics, for its acronym in English) will be favored, since they will be the ones chosen to program and operate those processes of high automation.
According to a Freelancer report, the three major categories that will grow most will be programming, marketing and communication and design. That is, two that are included within STEM skills and two others that are more linked to human sensitivity.
These new roles will be adapted to the division of labor between humans, machines and algorithms, which will accelerate the demand for experts in disciplines that until now did not exist, among which are:
- Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning
- Big data
- Security of the information
- Process automation
- User experience
- Interaction design between machines and humans
- Robotics
- Blockchain
The human component will be vital in a future where robots will have an increasingly important role. The experts, like Takayama, have in their hands a primordial objective: to delineate not only how they will interact, but also how they will coexist.
