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The dollar market is still ironed, but it could come out of this "nap" in the next few days. That is, at least, the expectation of the specialists of the main investment platforms 4.0.With the officer completely "stepped on" by a hyper-restrictive stock that only enables a quota of $ 200 per month, the parallel exchange rate should react.Although the current limitations paralyzed the supply of foreign exchange, the demand does not appear, even with an attractive gap that would be probing its floor and the possibility of buying legally and without limit via bonds in the capital market.It is that this post-election economy "is dollarized to the teeth," all experts agree. While in the official square the Central Bank has already bought more than $ 1 billion since the elections, the "dollar bag" (known as MEP) and the "counted with liquidation" (commonly called "liqui") continue falling down.These are two ways of dollarization through bonds that, unlike blue, do not represent a black or clandestine market. The first is more accessible than the second (since the liqui assumes having an account abroad to rotate the acquired currencies), the gaps with the officer are just above 20% and 30%, respectively.Same projection, several argumentsAnalysts mention several reasons for this phenomenon that, they estimate, is about to end."The demand is ironed as the market speculated on the worst scenario after the elections and positioned itself for that. But the result was not so drastic, the difference between the candidates was less than expected and the transition is not being so adverse, "says Nicolás Chiesa, director of Personal Portfolio, to iProUP."So," he adds, "that does not generate so much pressure on the currency and, therefore, there is also no huge flow of buyers, although the one who has does not sell or does so only when he needs pesos to pay something. that we see at times, which is a more seasonal issue throughout the month, but in general the portfolios are already dollarized. "And he argues: "Why do we think this is the floor of the gap? There are several reasons to think that the current scenario is temporary. It is a game in which, logically, the rates come into play: after the accelerated fall of the last wheels, the reference one (Leliq) closed near its floor for the month: 63% per year. "According to Chiesa, the main economic references of the new government are also weighing: "There is talk of a greater emission and it is implied that the real rate in pesos will be negative again, as in times of Kirchnerism. Then -if good interest rates can go down and investors get out of the local currency - the issue goes further: there will be higher inflation and you won't have anything to protect you. "Chiesa is concerned about the fact that it is not known "how the bonds will end in pesos." That is, if "they are reperfiled, if they are restructured or defaulted.""In case everything fits, it is not known whether there will be manipulation of the INDEC. There are a thousand 'buts' and questions that the market poses with the change of management. In that context, the easiest alternative will end up being going to the dollar and , most likely, that will make the gap widen again, "he warns.He adds that the seasonal theme will continue to play a role. "In December, the collection of bonuses will surely be an initial kick for this to happen. Of course we will have to see what happens when the new government assumes."Unsolved ExpectationsThere are several who see in this calm change a transitory phenomenon. By virtually eliminating the possibility of buying in the official market, what they call 'puree' in the City was also ruled out: acquiring dollars in banks to sell them more expensive in blue and making a difference."To this we must add, on the demand side, that investors had dollarized to the teeth in the previous election and now many of them need to sell to pay their expenses in pesos. But it is a momentary effect: we must wait to December, "Alejandro Bianchi, founder of asesordeinversiones.com, tells iProUP.In his vision, "there is still a very low request for local currency, beyond which the exchange rate has fallen momentarily in recent weeks as a result of overdolarization."However, he adds that there is an "issue of expectations" that is not solved. "There are inflationary pressures contained in the Leliqs based on what measures can be taken to disarm that stock of bonds issued by the BCRA and which is in the hands of the banks," he says.As if this were not enough, he adds, "the recomposition of confidence in the peso is tied to a successful restructuring of the debt and, for the moment, it is not clear what the path Argentina will take.""Additionally, you have the Latin American context that does not help. From the point of view of investors, those who were better off after the reperfilation were those who bet on Latam debt funds. Now we have to see how well they do if the situation continues to worsen throughout the region, "sentence.Demand that does not appear"The dollar is moving quite little. It is ironed," agrees José Bano, financial advisory manager for InvertirOnline. "As for the demand in the official market, up to $ 200, there is very little that is being bought, even forcing the Central Bank to acquire foreign currency," he says."As for the MEP dollar, you can actually buy or sell. The one who buys has no problem. The one who sells must 'bank' six business days of parking with bond ownership. So, there are many who prefer not to do so, despite the appeal is capitalized, "he adds.In this way, "those who bet on the dollar stock market are selling the 20% more expensive US currency, but they must endure almost a week with a position in bonds that can be adverse, even more at this moment of transition," he explains.The parking lot was arranged to discourage an operation that is known as a "roller" in the market. It is a restriction only for the sale of the MEP dollar, which consists in stretching the deadlines (leaving the silver "parked") to complete an operation that was previously immediate, but now the risk assumed when carrying it out is raised.The "curl" is the sale of dollarized bonds (usually from Bonar 2024) of someone who started from a position in pesos and "turned around" to return to pesos obtaining a juicy profit thanks to the gap between the dollar of the official market and the one listed on the Stock Exchange.With the tiny quota enabled by the new version of the stocks ($ 200 per month, versus the original $ 10,000), the pirouette no longer makes sense, despite the fact that the so-called parking is still valid. Bano says that at the time of the "roller" there was a certain level of volume that was negotiated in the Bonar 2024 (AY24) and multiplied by 20 in just one week."With this operation, of course the ticket is more expensive to pay. But there is no limitation: you buy and sell the securities at the moment and you literally have a second exposure to public bonds, then you are out all the time. And what you did was a foreign exchange transaction, "he remarks."In the officer, the demand does not appear or will appear because it is underfoot. Individuals with savings capacity (and who can justify their income) do not reach 2 million. At $ 200 per each, the demand was shortened to hoarding $ 400 million per month, after that figure in September exceeded $ 3 billion, "he adds.A stocks that lengthenRamiro Marra, director of BullMarket, numbers the phenomenon using the volume of the preferred bond for the MEP dollar or stock exchange: the Bonar 2024. "In the case of AY24D (counted), the volume fell from $ 65 million a day averaged up to u $ s30 million per day after the imposition of parking, "he shares with iProUP."The roller basically disappeared. The problem is that there are strong positions in blank dollars that cannot be disarmed against dollars for the 5-day parking plus the 48 hours of settlement (7 days) that prevent even a stronger decline in the MEP," analyze."Today we have a stunned exchange market. Because although the current stocks are very hard, similar to that of Kirchnerism, the square is very unbalanced: banks can be operated by turning foreign currencies abroad. This results in quotes being relatively calm ", Explain.The MEP remained stable from the parking lot. In fact, the gap with the officer rose 5%. From the stocks, the difference rose to 23% (this is the correct way to measure it, not nominally). The current calm is nothing more than the wait for the elected government to confirm, or not, if the current restrictions will continue after December 31, when they expire."Today, there are operations that are not done because of the transitory nature of the current restrictions but we understand that this wait will be indefinite and that will make the MEP return to have all the prominence, since it is the only legal way to make dollars "he concludes.

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