"The concern of the market today, without a doubt, is how the debt issue is going to be fixed. There is no expectation of change in the election and the debate did not help."
School but to the point, this is how Ramiro Marra, head of Bull Market, summarizes the investment climate in an Argentina that already has its sights set on December and that is still waiting for political and economic definitions of substance that will only be known after that month.
With portfolios already ultra-dollarized after the shock of the PASO, the savers already took their guards and the candidates failed, neither for good nor for bad, to influence the spirits. That same scenario traces iProUP Augusto Posleman, director of Portfolio Personal Inversiones, who says that "the debate had no direct impact on the market."
"What had high relevance were Cristina's statements from El Calafate, quite negative by the way, about who has to pay the debt and how it would be paid," he says. And he adds: "Everyone is aware of what the Fernández say and the type of restructuring that each one imagines."
In the same direction, from Portfolio Personal they say to iProUP: "Everyone assumes that Alberto Fernández wins. Investors are in wait and see mode. People who can buy dollars but do not see a run, since those who could dollarizing their wallets they did a while ago, "they explain.
And they insist: "There is a tense wait until announcements about monetary policy, economic equipment and debt arrive. But most have already sought refuge for their savings." In the middle, a couple of measures were known that helped to achieve this kind of numb or anesthetized market: reperfilation and stocks.The new stocks and the "reperfiled"After the escalation of the dollar after the Primary, the Government went out to extinguish the exchange fire with a "light version" stock to the purchase of foreign currency that still governs and consists of the following points:
- Individuals are unable to acquire more than $ 10,000 per month
- Companies cannot buy green bills to treasure, but to pay for imports and debts
- In the case of having to turn profits or dividends, they must request authorization from the Central Bank
This caused that the Argentineans had again in front of him several quotes of the currency and, in turn, that the most experienced in crisis bet on the "dollar rulo" to gain 7% taking advantage, as advanced iProUP. But, quickly, the Government went out to want to cut this operation.
Although the BCRA could not continue losing reserves at the rate at which it came, the truth is that it guarantees that any saver can withdraw their deposits in US currency: from the PAS they left $ 11,500 million of this type of placements and many fixed terms in pesos they were not renewed.Also there ir a reprogramming of the schedule of short-term maturities of the Treasury bills, based on the following points:
- Reaches an equivalent of US $ 16,000 million, 74% of the US $ 21,500 million to be paid or renewed in the short term (the last tender had been declared void)
- The first disbursement of this extension was 15% and the date on which it should be paid was respected. The second will be 90 days (for 25%) and after 180 days, the remaining 60%.
- As a consequence of the rebalancing, mutual funds lost half of their assets, as iProUP anticipated.
In the world of stock apps, the diagnosis is unanimous, and this is summarized by iProUP José Bano, financial advisory manager of InvertirOnline: "There are no significant movements at this time. All the portfolio adjustment took place just after STEP , when the public went on to reject any Argentine asset. "
"Naturally," he adds, "to the extent that investors were taking new positions and retrofitting portfolios, the concern was decreasing. Therefore, also the volume of operations. There was only something residual, some letter they were still waiting to collect or deadlines fixed ", complete.
"Since the Primary, there were no major developments, neither political nor economic, that justify a change in the face of the October 27 elections. Today we know exactly the same as the day after PASO. Similarly, the investing public does not He has been doing nothing different from what he had been doing before", he says.For its part, an online trader of one of the leading apps dismisses the effects of the debate: "I don't think it had a tremendous impact. None surprised. It was all that was expected. Perhaps there was a slight acceleration in dollarization, but no more than that".No outward signs
"The cash settlement, which was at $ 62- $ 63, had dropped a lot (almost 10 pesos from its maximum), so it barely recovered a bit. I wouldn't see it as a signal. In fact, until the election will remain in that strip and, once defined, we will see what its true level is, when the proposals are known, "says a source from the City who asks not to be mentioned.
"Today you have investors positioned in dollars in funds outside Argentina and those who have no choice but to remain in pesos, who are looking for conservative funds," he summarizes.
Within these funds, the so-called "t 1", which allow rescue within 24 hours, become relevant. They invest in everything that is short-term (deferred paychecks, sureties, fixed terms, financial trusts) and in turn in other Money Market funds, which allows liquidity to be immediate.
As they say in the City, today the local currency market is "broken", since it has run out of the investment alternatives that the Treasury had added to the menu and which were renegade by the reperfilation.
The truth is that the migration from funds called "t 1" to the money market has already been seen since the run in May (the t 1 are the ones that invested precisely in the short-term bills, which ended up being reprofiled). That is, their maturities were extended to ease the burden of having to renew them.
"These funds were sold massively and people were not aware of the risk. Suddenly, it was agreed that the dollar can rise 10% in a month," they say in the City.
Alejandro Bianchi, founder of AsesorDeInversiones.com, also emphasizes the relative stabilization of the last weeks after the cimbronazo of the PASO. "The Merval measured in dollars had its great blow after the Primary: it went from 950 points to a floor of 373 units at the end of August. The reperfilation and, above all, the stocks slowed down the bleeding of dollars or, at least , managed the dripping of currencies, "he says.
That allowed the stock market to recover. "Now it is located at 446 points. While it is not a big climb, it is a first step and has shown some stability, at least in this month and a half," says the expert.In his vision, "it is positive that Macri is coming to the general election and has not had to finish his term before. Drastic measures were necessary, it is true, and I do not rule out some even harder after the result. Even if there were ballot ".
"Fixed income (bonds) also accused the coup and today the two forces point to a repercussion that does not leave Argentina again outside the world. That what is coming is as harmful as possible", indicates almost as an expression of desire .
Bianchi qualifies as "important" the statements of the Minister of Finance, Hernán Lacunza, "as to acting fast," so he hopes that "perhaps before December there is an agreement between the two parties regarding the reperfilamiento."
"Those who had bonds and did not react on time, are stationed at these prices and say: 'I do not sell, I hope to see if it recovers.' If there is any demand, it comes from those who come to ask how to take care of their money, if they have to wait for what is to come positioned in pesos, "he says.
Mariano Sardans, of FDI Asset Management, explains clearly to iProUP: "Here you have a candidate, who is the most voted, who does not define what he will do, how, with whom and it is not known if they will leave. is what creates uncertainty. "Regarding the debt, he agrees that in 2020 Argentina has a problem, with bonds mostly from local jurisdiction that would normally be refinanced, but in the face of a closed market, it will have to renegotiate.
The expert says that "it is still possible to do things to save and not touch the interests as is the case of subsidies. The Government could perfectly reverberate, that is, offer to extend the deadlines without removing capital or interest as Uruguay did" .
"We have clients that depend on the interests of those bonds, on the return of that money to survive. For the good of all, I hope it is resolved amicably. If we return to scam the bondholder, Argentina is left out of the markets no less than 20 years. Bye investments, bye Vaca Muerta. Because we are a country that does not respect contracts. That cannot be repeated, "he shoots.
The market does not see such benevolent scenarios. The biggest fear is that instead of a "friendly" restructuring - beyond the renegotiation with the IMF - the interests of private investors are touched and there is a more or less digestible take away. Once again.